2018-19 Trade Talk

[herman]

The LA Kings are kicking off their fire sale

https://twitter.com/TSNBobMcKenzie/status/1062752768316735488
https://twitter.com/PierreVLeBrun/status/1062755590420738048

 

[Bender]

The LA Kings are kicking off their fire sale

https://twitter.com/TSNBobMcKenzie/status/1062752768316735488
https://twitter.com/PierreVLeBrun/status/1062755590420738048

Is Hagelin no good? Pearson any good?

 

[Andy07]

The LA Kings are kicking off their fire sale

https://twitter.com/TSNBobMcKenzie/status/1062752768316735488
https://twitter.com/PierreVLeBrun/status/1062755590420738048

Is Hagelin no good? Pearson any good?

Pearson has out produced Hagelin fairly regularly and is 4 years younger so it seems kind of odd to me. Does LA clear out any cap space or salary here?

 

[herman]

Is Hagelin no good? Pearson any good?

Hagelin is 30 and a pending UFA (so he will definitely be traded again), a defensive winger in the bottom 6.

Tanner Pearson is 26 and under contract for two more seasons after this one (3.75M AAV) is an okay offensive winger, probably tops out on 2nd line.

 

[Bender]

Is Hagelin no good? Pearson any good?

Hagelin is 30 and a pending UFA (so he will definitely be traded again), a defensive winger in the bottom 6.

Tanner Pearson is 26 and under contract for two more seasons after this one (3.75M AAV) is an okay offensive winger, probably tops out on 2nd line.

Hard to think why they're doing this. Maybe trying to go for 1st pick?

 

[herman]

Is Hagelin no good? Pearson any good?

Hagelin is 30 and a pending UFA (so he will definitely be traded again), a defensive winger in the bottom 6.

Tanner Pearson is 26 and under contract for two more seasons after this one (3.75M AAV) is an okay offensive winger, probably tops out on 2nd line.

Hard to think why they're doing this. Maybe trying to go for 1st pick?

Yes, but the way Pearson was shooting this season already, they should have just kept him. 40pts on <4M AAV is value.

Sure they'll trade Hagelin for a pick as defensive forward depth (PK specialist) to a contender later, but that's what... a low 3rd at most? They could have also waited for Pearson's shooting percentage to bounce back up and packaged him for a better deal.

 

[bustaheims]

Pearson has out produced Hagelin fairly regularly and is 4 years younger so it seems kind of odd to me. Does LA clear out any cap space or salary here?

Their point/game over the last 4 seasons is virtually identical (0.44 vs 0.43). Pearson has the edge in raw totals, but that?s because he?s been healthier. In terms of offensive ability, they?re quite similar. Pearson?s advantages are really only in age, health history, and contract length.

 

[Bender]

Pearson has out produced Hagelin fairly regularly and is 4 years younger so it seems kind of odd to me. Does LA clear out any cap space or salary here?

Their point/game over the last 4 seasons is virtually identical (0.44 vs 0.43). Pearson has the edge in raw totals, but that?s because he?s been healthier. In terms of offensive ability, they?re quite similar. Pearson?s advantages are really only in age, health history, and contract length.

Those are important advantages all else being equal though.

 

[Andy07]

Pearson has out produced Hagelin fairly regularly and is 4 years younger so it seems kind of odd to me. Does LA clear out any cap space or salary here?

Their point/game over the last 4 seasons is virtually identical (0.44 vs 0.43). Pearson has the edge in raw totals, but that?s because he?s been healthier. In terms of offensive ability, they?re quite similar. Pearson?s advantages are really only in age, health history, and contract length.

Those are important advantages all else being equal though.

Not only that but I think those point totals are still a little misleading. Hagelin had that one stretch when Pittsburgh first acquired him where his point/game was nearly .70. And it includes Hagelin's prime years versus Pearson's early foray into the NHL. As for health issues, Hagelin's only missed 20 games going back to 2014 so I'm not sure how that gives Pearson any advantage in the raw totals, especially since Pearson only played 40 games in 2014.

 

[bustaheims]

Not only that but I think those point totals are still a little misleading. Hagelin had that one stretch when Pittsburgh first acquired him where his point/game was nearly .70. And it includes Hagelin's prime years versus Pearson's early foray into the NHL. As for health issues, Hagelin's only missed 20 games going back to 2014 so I'm not sure how that gives Pearson any advantage in the raw totals, especially since Pearson only played 40 games in 2014.

Hagelin put up points at a similar rate to Pearson when they were the same age, and he?s not exactly old, either. They?re both past what research has shown are typically a player?s peak productive seasons. I?m just saying, to paint Pearson as a clearly better player is disingenuous. He?s really just a younger, slightly bigger player of a similar talent level on a longer contract (at around the same rate Hagelin will likely sign for this summer).

Pittsburgh gets a controlled asset, LA gets some flexibility this summer. Neither team changes their talent level in a meaningful way.

 

[Nik]

Hagelin put up points at a similar rate to Pearson when they were the same age, and he?s not exactly old, either. They?re both past what research has shown are typically a player?s peak productive seasons. I?m just saying, to paint Pearson as a clearly better player is disingenuous. He?s really just a younger, slightly bigger player of a similar talent level on a longer contract (at around the same rate Hagelin will likely sign for this summer).

In fact, I think a pretty fair case can be made that the numbers favour Hagelin right now. Last year Pearson was at 15 g, 25 assists and Hagelin was at 10 g, 21 a. Hagelin probably had the edge in linemates, Pearson has the massive edge in situational ice time(150 PP minutes to virtually none for Hagelin, 200 PK minutes for Hagelin to 85 PK minutes for Pearson)

So yeah, not a huge difference. I still don't entirely get this from LA's perspective but that's more in the "huh" category than some catastrophic blunder. Pearson seems like a guy worth keeping around in the hope that he builds value vs. Hagelin adding very little to whatever LA might be after.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Hagelin put up points at a similar rate to Pearson when they were the same age, and he?s not exactly old, either. They?re both past what research has shown are typically a player?s peak productive seasons. I?m just saying, to paint Pearson as a clearly better player is disingenuous. He?s really just a younger, slightly bigger player of a similar talent level on a longer contract (at around the same rate Hagelin will likely sign for this summer).

Pittsburgh gets a controlled asset, LA gets some flexibility this summer. Neither team changes their talent level in a meaningful way.

Even if we accepted that Hagelin and Pearson have similar offensive outputs (which I disagree about... Pearson's last 3 seasons he's at .50 PPG while Hagelin is at 0.41)... scoring at those types of rates on the Penguins is an entirely different story than scoring that type of rate on the Kings. Especially in the Sutter seasons. In 16/17 Pearson's 44 point season put him 3rd on the Kings in scoring. He would have been 7th in scoring on the Pens that year. You can't entirely ignore that the two teams play essentially complete opposite systems.

Also Pearson's most common linemates in LA have been Toffoli and Carter. Two pretty good players. But in Pittsburgh Hagelin's have been Malkin and Kessel. I'd be willing to be quite a bit of money Pearson would have been putting up 50+ points no problem if their roles were reversed the past few seasons.

 

[Nik]

Even if we accepted that Hagelin and Pearson have similar offensive outputs (which I disagree about... Pearson's last 3 seasons he's at .50 PPG while Hagelin is at 0.41)...

Again, just for emphasis, Pearson last year had 147:50 in PP time. Hagelin has 123:22 in PP time in his entire career.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Again, just for emphasis, Pearson last year had 147:50 in PP time. Hagelin has 123:22 in PP time in his entire career.

Just as a quick aside from, I'm actually pretty surprised Hagelin's career PP minutes are THAT low.

But yeah, fair point. So looking at only 5-on-5 points they actually scored the exact same amount (27) in virtually the same minutes. Hagelin scored that playing primary on a line with Malkin and Hornqvist. Pearson did it with Adrian Kempe and Tyler Toffoli as his most common linemates.

I don't know. I don't think Hagelin is an awful player or anything but there's just too many advantages here for Pearson. The Kings sold low on him when they really had no reason to. They should have tried playing him with Kopitar first (those two played a total of 15 minutes together this season) to try and jump start his season before dumping him.

 

[Nik]

But yeah, fair point. So looking at only 5-on-5 points they actually scored the exact same amount (27) in virtually the same minutes. Hagelin scored that playing primary on a line with Malkin and Hornqvist. Pearson did it with Adrian Kempe and Tyler Toffoli as his most common linemates.

Yeah, this isn't really a point either way but I guess I'm wondering in a case like Hagelin's where you're a strong defensive player on a line with two guys in Malkin and Kessel who are, to be charitable, less strong defensively I wonder if you're not holding yourself back a bit and over committing to being ready for the back check. I'd have to watch more Penguins hockey to know though.

I don't know. I don't think Hagelin is an awful player or anything but there's just too many advantages here for Pearson. The Kings sold low on him when they really had no reason to. They should have tried playing him with Kopitar first (those two played a total of 15 minutes together this season) to try and jump start his season before dumping him.

The only thing I can think of is that whatever has gone wrong with Pearson is something they think is structural or really indicative of some deeper problem so they see Hagelin as a guy who, because of his expiring deal and defensive abilities, is someone they can easily flip at the deadline.

 

[herman]

For the life of me I can't quite figure out why Ilya Kovalchuk chose the Kings as his renaissance destination. Because they were really good when he first left the NHL? The complete opposite off-ice lifestyle to Moscow?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

For the life of me I can't quite figure out why Ilya Kovalchuk chose the Kings as his renaissance destination. Because they were really good when he first left the NHL? The complete opposite off-ice lifestyle to Moscow?

Because they offered him a 3-year contract?

But yeah, weird move by a guy whose return seemed to be motivated by wanting to win a Cup. LA will be in tough to make the playoffs in any of the next 3 seasons. I guess he was blinded by a core of Kopitar/Doughty/Quick.

 

[cabber24]

Feels like vintage Kovalchuk, racking up points on a terrible team. A perennial negative on the stat line.

Sorry, has never been a favorite of mine.

 

[Frank E]

Feels like vintage Kovalchuk, racking up points on a terrible team. A perennial negative on the stat line.

Sorry, has never been a favorite of mine.

Yeah, a Selke winner with 92 points last season...where's the negative again?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Feels like vintage Kovalchuk, racking up points on a terrible team. A perennial negative on the stat line.

Sorry, has never been a favorite of mine.

It wasn't his fault that the Thrashers sucked and he literally carried the Devils to a Stanley Cup Finals appearance (while playing with a herniated disc).