Drew Doughty / Erik Karlsson / Oliver Ekman-Larsson

[herman]

Let's just talk about this here.

http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/article/doughty-just-wants-to-win-whether-it-s-in-l-a-or-somewhere-else

http://www.tsn.ca/radio/audio/poulin-leafs-likely-wouldn-t-be-prepared-to-trade-marner-for-doughty-1.852832

Doughty is a free agent at the end of the 2018-19 season. He'll be 29 at the time, going on 30.

-- Added Doughty's 1D UFA cohort members to the pile.

 

[herman]

If both Doughty and Karlsson hit UFA (at the same time)... hoo boy.

 

[Zee]

If both Doughty and Karlsson hit UFA (at the same time)... hoo boy.

I didn't realize Karlsson was coming up to a contract so soon.  I can only imagine what kind of money he could command.  Ottawa is in some trouble.

 

[bustaheims]

If both Doughty and Karlsson hit UFA (at the same time)... hoo boy.

I don't see Karlsson hitting the market - Ottawa will throw everything at him, and they'll likely be good enough for him to see a possibility of success there. Doughty, on the other hand . . . LA's situation is not good, and could very easily get much worse over the next two year. He may very well consider the possibility of looking to play somewhere with a legit shot going forward. It's unlikely, but more likely than Karlsson.

 

[Kin]

I don't see Karlsson hitting the market - Ottawa will throw everything at him, and they'll likely be good enough for him to see a possibility of success there.

I don't think retaining Karlsson will be an issue either, teams seem more or less willing to give big time stars what they want salary wise so unless Karlsson just doesn't like Ottawa(which he's given no indication of) he'll probably be willing to stay put.

The issue in Ottawa is that between then and now they're also going to have to give big raises to Stone and Turris and their really bad Ryan and Phaneuf contracts don't come off the books until later. If Karlsson really wants to get paid he could potentially double his current salary and the Sens may still be in a position where they're operating with an internal cap.

Again, I think they'd make room for Karlsson but that window on their current group might be slimmer than you'd think.

 

[herman]

Would you say the situation with Karlsson is similar to Tavares'?

Middling team with one or two hits of success in the past decade, but look to be spinning their tires. They're willing to splurge on their one superstar, but what are they doing to surround them with playoff caliber talent?

 

[Zee]

I don't see Karlsson hitting the market - Ottawa will throw everything at him, and they'll likely be good enough for him to see a possibility of success there.

I don't think retaining Karlsson will be an issue either, teams seem more or less willing to give big time stars what they want salary wise so unless Karlsson just doesn't like Ottawa(which he's given no indication of) he'll probably be willing to stay put.

The issue in Ottawa is that between then and now they're also going to have to give big raises to Stone and Turris and their really bad Ryan and Phaneuf contracts don't come off the books until later. If Karlsson really wants to get paid he could potentially double his current salary and the Sens may still be in a position where they're operating with an internal cap.

Again, I think they'd make room for Karlsson but that window on their current group might be slimmer than you'd think.

I have no doubt they'll sign Karlsson to whatever he wants, but given that they're never going to be cap spending team but instead have their own internal number they'll stick to, it's going to be very difficult to put together a quality lineup once Karlsson eats up a huge chunk of their number.  Unless Melynyk decides to open up and spend more, they'll have Karlsson + a lot of plugs.

 

[Kin]

Would you say the situation with Karlsson is similar to Tavares'?

Middling team with one or two hits of success in the past decade, but look to be spinning their tires. They're willing to splurge on their one superstar, but what are they doing to surround them with playoff caliber talent?

I suppose so. Although I think the Senators have actually done reasonably well building a competitive team without bottoming out. I think they've got a pretty good group of prospects still coming up so they very well may be able to cut ties with some of their current players for salary reasons and still be relatively competitive.

That said, last year's flukey run aside, they're still faced with what all mid-tier teams are faced with even if they have as big a star as Karlsson. Can you win without multiple big deal stars and, because it's very hard to make the case that you can, how do you get them outside of the draft?

 

[Kin]

I have no doubt they'll sign Karlsson to whatever he wants, but given that they're never going to be cap spending team but instead have their own internal number they'll stick to, it's going to be very difficult to put together a quality lineup once Karlsson eats up a huge chunk of their number.  Unless Melynyk decides to open up and spend more, they'll have Karlsson + a lot of plugs.

I don't think Melnyk's spending is that big a deal. You're talking about a fairly small percentage of the cap that he seems to want to keep under. It certainly doesn't help, but it's ultimately probably going to amount to the difference between one pretty good free agent or so.

I really think the bigger issue there is parity. The Sens got into the playoffs last year in large part because teams like the Panthers fell off and the Lightning struggled. They made the playoff run they did with a lot of luck, a ton of help from the format and some all-world play from Karlsson but really...are they one of the top 10 rosters in hockey? They pushed Pittsburgh to 7 games after Pittsburgh had gone to war with the #1 and #4 teams in hockey but I think they, and the hockey public at large, have a false sense of how good they are.

 

[Zee]

I have no doubt they'll sign Karlsson to whatever he wants, but given that they're never going to be cap spending team but instead have their own internal number they'll stick to, it's going to be very difficult to put together a quality lineup once Karlsson eats up a huge chunk of their number.  Unless Melynyk decides to open up and spend more, they'll have Karlsson + a lot of plugs.

I don't think Melnyk's spending is that big a deal. You're talking about a fairly small percentage of the cap that he seems to want to keep under. It certainly doesn't help, but it's ultimately probably going to amount to the difference between one pretty good free agent or so.

I really think the bigger issue there is parity. The Sens got into the playoffs last year in large part because teams like the Panthers fell off and the Lightning struggled. They made the playoff run they did with a lot of luck, a ton of help from the format and some all-world play from Karlsson but really...are they one of the top 10 rosters in hockey? They pushed Pittsburgh to 7 games after Pittsburgh had gone to war with the #1 and #4 teams in hockey but I think they, and the hockey public at large, have a false sense of how good they are.

I hope you're right, I really want to see the Sens drop off.  You'll get an internet hug from me if you're right.

 

[Kin]

I hope you're right, I really want to see the Sens drop off.  You'll get an internet hug from me if you're right.

To be clear, I don't know if they'll fall off to a big extent as in get worse. I'm just saying I don't think they'll ever have a season with an easier path to the playoffs and then an easier path through the playoffs than they had last year.

 

[Zee]

I hope you're right, I really want to see the Sens drop off.  You'll get an internet hug from me if you're right.

To be clear, I don't know if they'll fall off to a big extent as in get worse. I'm just saying I don't think they'll ever have a season with an easier path to the playoffs and then an easier path through the playoffs than they had last year.

You're not avoiding a hug, sorry.

 

[Redleaf]

Doughty for Marner straight up would be a real tough decision for me. I like the younger Marner better as a player. The need for a Doughty-type D man right now is more pressing. Getting the man himself in the trade and I'd likely probably pull the trigger, even at the expense of our 2nd most-gifted player (at least in my mind).
I'd make this trade, and then go hard after Tavares, providing there's enough cap space when everything shakes out.
I can't imagine a Leaf squad with the likes of Tavares, Matthews, Nylander, Doughty, Rielly & Marleau.

 

[Kin]

Doughty for Marner straight up would be a real tough decision for me. I like the younger Marner better as a player. The need for a Doughty-type D man right now is more pressing. Getting the man himself in the trade and I'd likely probably pull the trigger, even at the expense of our 2nd most-gifted player (at least in my mind).

I know it's a hypothetical but I'd be a pretty hard no on Marner for Doughty. Chiefly because I don't think it would cost that much to get it done. I think the only way Doughty gets traded is if he's determined to leave. If he's determined to leave then LA has nothing close to the amount of leverage to demand a player like Marner and I don't see any team out there coming close to the offer.

I think if you took a package of the team's B and C level assets so, say, any two of Liljegren, Kapanen or a 1st rounder and then one of Grundstrom or Dermott or a 2nd rounder then you probably couldn't get Doughty(unless, again, he's determined to leave in which case that might do it) but the defenseman you could get + having Marner would be better than Doughty and no Marner.

 

[Bender]

Yeah and Doughty, while not old, ain't a spring chicken. I know we need D at some point but it cant come at the expense of our young core. Besides, Marner's value will only go up from here.

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[hockeyfan1]

While it would suit the Leafs well to have a defenceman such as Doughty, the idea of trading Marner for him is null & void in my book.

 

[rdowdall]

So as much as the Leafs need a d-man, the projections on Marner, Nylander, and Matthews, are three players who can take over a game and can be the difference between winning and losing by themselves.  It appears as all three players are going to be real difference makers when it comes to winning and losing a hockey game.  That's something that very few other teams have and is a tough match-up to counter. 

I think the more prudent course of action would be to wait the next two years, while Marner, Nylander and Matthews hopefully raise their value, and take stock of where the team is then.  It may be that they have that d-man in house, and they develop over those next two years.  That would put them ahead of where they are at if they would trade one of Marner or Nylander for a d-man today.

 

[hockeyfan1]

So as much as the Leafs need a d-man, the projections on Marner, Nylander, and Matthews, are three players who can take over a game and can be the difference between winning and losing by themselves.  It appears as all three players are going to be real difference makers when it comes to winning and losing a hockey game.  That's something that very few other teams have and is a tough match-up to counter. 

I think the more prudent course of action would be to wait the next two years, while Marner, Nylander and Matthews hopefully raise their value, and take stock of where the team is then.  It may be that they have that d-man in house, and they develop over those next two years.  That would put them ahead of where they are at if they would trade one of Marner or Nylander for a d-man today.

Sounds quite prudent really.  Afterall, why trade a part of the young core?  As you say, the wait and see approach is best, unless of course, Lou & co. have it already worked out.

 

[disco]

I see the Leafs continuing to develop and rise, and then when the time comes for them to make a move that improves the overall team at the expense of an individual player, they'll make it. Probably regarding defense.

 

[herman]

Just expanding this thread to incorporate some other UFA 1D options, primarily the 3 in the title, but also second tier options in Gardiner, Ryan McDonagh, and Ryan Ellis.

Doughty and Karlsson have both expressed they are looking for their full market value.

OEL is stuck on a bad team and basically has only one trade deadline deal and then one (mega) contract left to try to land with a playoff-bound team. Karlsson and OEL both play for internal Cap teams too. OEL is the youngest UFA 1D option.

Ellis is most likely to re-sign with the Preds (they're winning and the state is largely income-tax easy). He's only currently making 2.5M AAV and will be one of the younger UFA D options.

Gardiner is another option that will likely re-sign with his current team (if that team will have him).

At this juncture (2019/20), the Leafs will have these guys still under contract:
L: Rielly (5M), Dermott (ELC), Nielsen (ELC)
R: Zaitsev (4.5M), Liljegren (ELC)

and these guys in their control:
Borgman, Rosen

and these guys might be extended into new contracts at that point:
Marincin, Valiev
Both are unlikely.